[{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org\/","@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/www.karman.sk\/investicny-scenar-roku-2018-niet-sa-coho-bat\/#Article","mainEntityOfPage":"https:\/\/www.karman.sk\/investicny-scenar-roku-2018-niet-sa-coho-bat\/","headline":"Investi\u010dn\u00fd scen\u00e1r roku 2018. Niet sa \u010doho b\u00e1\u0165?","name":"Investi\u010dn\u00fd scen\u00e1r roku 2018. Niet sa \u010doho b\u00e1\u0165?","description":"Investori s\u00fa im\u00fanni aj k mierne re\u0161trikt\u00edvnej monet\u00e1rnej politike americkej centr\u00e1lnej banky. Je to dan\u00e9 t\u00fdm, \u017ee ostatn\u00e9 v\u00fdznamn\u00e9 centr\u00e1lne banky (eur\u00f3pska a...","datePublished":"2017-12-08","dateModified":"2023-04-25","author":{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/www.karman.sk\/author\/#Person","name":"","url":"https:\/\/www.karman.sk\/author\/","identifier":1,"image":{"@type":"ImageObject","@id":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/087c2e57f451bc02fa8017914855d7c40cf6c7d5dc1637b868e007adc26322d1?s=96&d=mm&r=g","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/087c2e57f451bc02fa8017914855d7c40cf6c7d5dc1637b868e007adc26322d1?s=96&d=mm&r=g","height":96,"width":96}},"publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"karman.sk","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","@id":"\/logo.png","url":"\/logo.png","width":600,"height":60}},"image":{"@type":"ImageObject","@id":"https:\/\/www.karman.sk\/wp-content\/uploads\/img_a284840_w16467_t1518090000.jpg","url":"https:\/\/www.karman.sk\/wp-content\/uploads\/img_a284840_w16467_t1518090000.jpg","height":0,"width":0},"url":"https:\/\/www.karman.sk\/investicny-scenar-roku-2018-niet-sa-coho-bat\/","about":["Ekonomika"],"wordCount":425,"articleBody":"Investori s\u00fa im\u00fanni aj k mierne re\u0161trikt\u00edvnej monet\u00e1rnej politike americkej centr\u00e1lnej banky. Je to dan\u00e9 t\u00fdm, \u017ee ostatn\u00e9 v\u00fdznamn\u00e9 centr\u00e1lne banky (eur\u00f3pska a japonsk\u00e1) st\u00e1le na kapit\u00e1lov\u00e9 trhy dod\u00e1vaj\u00fa \u010fal\u0161iu a \u010fal\u0161iu likviditu. Tieto dodato\u010dn\u00e9 „eur\u00f3pske a japonsk\u00e9“ peniaze viac ne\u017e vyv\u00e1\u017ea efekt s\u0165ahovania pe\u0148az\u00ed americk\u00fdm Fedom. Preto aj v\u00fdh\u013eady ekon\u00f3mov na rok 2018 s\u00fa vo ve\u013ekej miere pozit\u00edvne, respekt\u00edve dokia\u013e bude bankov\u00fd sektor dod\u00e1va\u0165 likviditu, tak sa nie je \u010doho b\u00e1\u0165. \u010co ke\u010f sa ale na ekonomick\u00fa realitu pozrieme aj in\u00fdm ako makroekonomick\u00fdm poh\u013eadom?Ved\u013ea likvidity je \u0165ah\u00fa\u0148om akciov\u00fdch trhov aj spotrebite\u013e, respekt\u00edve spotrebite\u013esk\u00e9 v\u00fddavky (v USA tvoria dve tretiny HDP). Napr\u00edklad spotrebite\u013esk\u00e9 v\u00fddavky za posledn\u00fdch desa\u0165 rokov v USA r\u00e1stli ro\u010dn\u00fdm tempom 2,7 percenta, av\u0161ak re\u00e1lny pr\u00edjem spotrebite\u013eov r\u00e1stol v rovnakom obdob\u00ed iba tempom 1,9 percenta za rok. Z toho vypl\u00fdva, \u017ee spotrebitelia menej \u0161etrili (tj. vytv\u00e1rali menej \u00faspor). To sa tie\u017e prejavilo t\u00fdm, \u017ee miera \u00faspor spotrebite\u013eov v USA klesla z 3,7 percenta (koniec roka 2016) na 2,9 percenta ku koncu roka 2017, \u010do je okrem in\u00e9ho desa\u0165ro\u010dn\u00e9 minimum. Pre \u00faplnos\u0165 dodajme, \u017ee miera \u00faspor v roku 2015 predstavovala 5,9 percenta. N\u00edzka miera \u00faspor historicky znamen\u00e1 tie\u017e ni\u017e\u0161iu mieru rastu hospod\u00e1rstva v bud\u00facnosti.Spotrebitelia si nem\u00f4\u017eu natla\u010di\u0165 \u010fal\u0161ie peniaze ako centr\u00e1lne banky \u010di utr\u00e1ca\u0165 „donekone\u010dna“ ako \u0161t\u00e1ty, ktor\u00e9 sa viac a viac zadl\u017euj\u00fa.N\u00edzku mieru \u00faspor by sa dalo vyrie\u0161i\u0165 rastom re\u00e1lneho pr\u00edjmu spotrebite\u013eov. Ak sa pozrieme ale na trh pr\u00e1ce v USA, tak tempo rastu zamestnanosti dosiahlo vrchol za\u010diatkom roka 2015 a od tej doby tento ukazovate\u013e kles\u00e1. To znamen\u00e1, \u017ee americk\u00e9 firmy nestoja pred probl\u00e9mom nedostatku zamestnancov, ktor\u00e9 by potrebovali zamestna\u0165 (s\u00fa v opa\u010dnej situ\u00e1cii ne\u017e tuzemsk\u00e9 firmy). Teda tu nie je ani tlak, aby firmy pon\u00fakali vy\u0161\u0161ie platy a t\u00fdm zv\u00fd\u0161ili aj re\u00e1lny pr\u00edjem zamestnancov – spotrebite\u013eov.Ak sa vr\u00e1time k n\u00edzkej miere \u00faspor, ktor\u00e1 sa v tomto roku pravdepodobne nezlep\u0161\u00ed, tak aj tempo m\u00ed\u0148ania spotrebite\u013eov m\u00f4\u017ee za\u010da\u0165 klesa\u0165 a o\u010dak\u00e1vania, ktor\u00e9 maj\u00fa analytici \u010di investori oh\u013eadom rastu hospod\u00e1rstva, sa nemusia naplni\u0165. Rastov\u00e1 \u0161n\u00fara akciov\u00fdch trhov by tak mohla by\u0165 preru\u0161en\u00e1.\u00a0                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        4.9\/5 - (8 votes)        "},{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org\/","@type":"BreadcrumbList","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Investi\u010dn\u00fd scen\u00e1r roku 2018. Niet sa \u010doho b\u00e1\u0165?","item":"https:\/\/www.karman.sk\/investicny-scenar-roku-2018-niet-sa-coho-bat\/#breadcrumbitem"}]}]